You may be reading headlines and hearing talk about a potential housing bubble or a crash, but it’s important to understand that the data and expert opinions tell a different story. A recent survey from Pulsenomics asked over one hundred housing market experts and real estate economists if they believe the housing market is in a bubble. The results indicate most experts don’t think that’s the case (see graph below):
As the graph shows, a strong majority (60%) said the real estate market is not currently in a bubble. In the same survey, experts give the following reasons why this isn’t like 2008:
- The recent growth in home prices is because of demographics and low inventory
- Credit risks are low because underwriting and lending standards are sound
If you’re concerned a crash may be coming, here’s a deep dive into those two key factors that should help ease your concerns.
1. Low Housing Inventory Is Causing Home Prices To Rise
The supply of homes available for sale needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued price appreciation.
As the graph below shows, there were too many homes for sale from 2007 to 2010 (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to tumble. Today, there’s still a shortage of inventory, which is causing ongoing home price appreciation (see graph below):
Inventory is nothing like the last time. Prices are rising because there’s a healthy demand for homeownership at the same time there’s a limited supply of homes for sale. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains:
“The fundamentals driving house price growth in the U.S. remain intact. . . . The demand for homes continues to exceed the supply of homes for sale, which is keeping house price growth high.”
2. Mortgage Lending Standards Today Are Nothing Like the Last Time
During the housing bubble, it was much easier to get a mortgage than it is today. Here’s a graph showing the mortgage volume issued to purchasers with a credit score less than 620 during the housing boom, and the subsequent volume in the years after:
This graph helps show one element of why mortgage standards are nothing like they were the last time. Purchasers who acquired a mortgage over the last decade are much more qualified than they were in the years leading up to the crash. Realtor.com notes:
“. . . Lenders are giving mortgages only to the most qualified borrowers. These buyers are less likely to wind up in foreclosure.”
A majority of experts agree we’re not in a housing bubble. That’s because home price growth is backed by strong housing market fundamentals and lending standards are much tighter today. If you have questions, let’s connect to discuss why today’s housing market is nothing like 2008.
Ah, Valentine’s day is upon us again. Whatever your outlook may be on the holiday, we cannot deny that it’s one of the best holidays of the year. Why not? There’re an abundance of activities, special menu items, and themed happenings iin all your favorite places! That being said, we’ve conjured up a special list of unique and fun things to do on this Valentine’s week with your partner or with yourself to bring more love into your life. Nothing wrong with receiving a little bit more of it.
- Transform the beach into a perfect picnic
Nowadays your home is not just a place to sleep, but it’s also where you work, exercise and for this Valentine’s day, home is where you’ll have a memorable date night! For this year’s celebration of the hearts [Unified Wines], is putting together a date night box that includes two bottles of their natural wine, two handcrafted chocolate bars from LetterPress and Love Lingual – a perfect game night date whatever your relationship status may be!
2. Wine tasting at San Antonio winery
When you think of wineries, Downtown Los Angeles isn’t what typically would come to mind, but if you cannot get to wine country yet you still want that experience for you and your significant other, San Antonio Winery is a great option. In addition to their wine tasting room, they also have an Italian restaurant (nothing says Valentine’s more than Italian cuisine, really), Maddalena. Come for a tasting or enjoy a 4-course meal and wine dinner, [Love on the Vine], on both Friday and Saturday of Valentine’s Day weekend.
3. Go for Ice Cream
The broken heart’s club aren’t the only ones who would opt for ice cream this Valentine’s. A simple yet cute date idea is to treat your Valentine to ice cream inspired by travel and adventure at one of our favorite ice cream shops, [Wanderlust Creamer]. They’ll be offering two (2) special Valentine’s Day flavors: Raspberry Lychee Rose Sorbet and Valentine’s Day Napoleon in addition to all of their signature flavors.
4. Open up a date night box
Nowadays your home is not just a place to sleep, but it’s also where you work, exercise and for this Valentine’s day, home is where you’ll have a memorable date night! For this year’s celebration of the hearts [Unfined Wines], is putting together a date night box that includes two bottles of their natural wine, two handcrafted chocolate bars from LetterPress and Love Lingual – a perfect game night date whatever your relationship status may be!
5. Get drinks on a rooftop
Start your date on the rooftop of the once-music-studio-turned-hip-restaurant, [Grandmaster Recorders] in Hollywood. Their cocktail menu includes music-themed creations like “Late Registration,” featuring Gray Goose Vodka, vermouth, ginger, yellow watermelon and lime (yum!). Then, if you’re looking for a full feast, their restaurant downstairs hosts an Italian & Australian-inspired “Chef’s Menu for Lovers” that costs $120 per person. The menu includes five courses with unique items like potato scallops with whipped cod roe and Barolo Glazed Wagyu Cheek.
6. See an outdoor movie
Who says outdoor movies are out of style? If anything, nothing screams romantic more than Italian cuisine, AND vintage date ideas. [I|O Rooftop], now the largest rooftop in Hollywood will be hosting a movie night complete with a marathon of classic romantic films as well as a picnic setup. Classic movies, citywide views, hand-crafted cocktails, and chic atmosphere – what more can you ask for? (probably a date)
7. Have a multi-course meal at home
If this pandemic has gotten you accustomed to dining in sweatpants, you may still continue doing so while enjoying a unique Valentine’s Day meal. [Sushi Sasabune] in West La has six different omakase options. Santa Monica restaurant [Milo & Olive] has a Lady and the Tramp take-home meal which includes the obvious spaghetti and meatballs, salad, baguette and mini chocolate cake with marshmallow sauce for $85.
8. Take a cooking class
There is nothing more romantic than cooking your loved ones favorite dishes with your heart on your sleeves. [The Gourmandise School] offers several Valentine’s Day cooking classes including a dumpling making class on D-day and a Parent & Child Valentine’s Day desserts class for your sweet tooth on Saturday, February 12.
[Sur La Table Cooking School at the Village at Topanga] has a large variety of cooking classes throughout the weekend and on Valentine’s Day which includes Valentine’s Day sweets, a chocolate making class and a class to make macaroons! Yey! And on the celebration day itself, the Date Night Bold Tuscan Flavors class has an Italian menu (Landon Pacific favorite!) that rivals any Michelin-star restaurant.
But of course, we can’t forget that we’re, unfortunately, still living in a pandemic – sigh. So, if you prefer to play chef in the comforts of your own kitchen, Sur La Table also offers [online cooking classes]. On the 14th, there will be both Italian and French date night options for your indecisive partner for only $29. Goodluck.
9. Get crafty with Maker’s Mess
Gifting during this day is usually one of the hardest dilemmas for people in love around the globe (aside from Christmas). But we all know that the greatest and most amazing gifts are ones that cannot be bought, and more likely hand-made by you, of course. [Maker’s Mess], a creative arts studio downtown, is offering a ton of workshops this Valentine’s Day weekend. Get experimental (but keep it PG please for the love of all that is sweet) at the [Experimental Polaroid Workshop with Valley in Film] on Saturday, February 12 or Sunday, February 13. If you want to be more handsy with your creation, then take a [Paper Mache class] and create the “adult-version” of the gifts you used to make for your grade school crush on Valentine’s. You can visit their website [here] for the full in-studio holiday schedule.
10. Host a Valentine’s Day gathering with your cocktail courier
If you’re spending this sweet sweet day with a crew of friends, then one amazing activity you can indulge in is creating your own Cosmos with the help of Cocktail Courier’s [Absolut Cosmopolitan Cocktail Kit]. They deliver right to your door and the kit includes all the ingredients you’ll need to make nine drinks.
11. Pay homage to “Ghost” at a pottery making class
[Still Life Ceramics] studio at the Row DTLA is holding a special Valentine’s Day Happy Hour class. The class is $60 per person and everyone is welcome to join. Of course, pottery making is not complete without the ambient music playing in the background from the classic rom-com Ghost.
12. Indulge in a massage
Listen, it’s been a long rough year and you’re in need of a human touch (we won’t judge). Skip finding a date and instead, treat yourself to a massage at [The Now]. Lucky for you, wherever you may be in Los Angeles, because they have locations all over the city! If you like being in touch with nature, then their interior will surely please you. All massages can be customized with add-ons like scalp massage or a soothing eye mask. Talk about self love.
But, if you happen to be successful with your last-minute-valentine’s-day scavenger hunt, [The Ritz Carlton] is offering a Couple’s Chemistry Package for the price of $960 per couple. This includes a full-body massage, as well as a soaking bath, accompanied with rose tea and Champagne.
13. Get serenaded by Eric Mccormack
A good laugh is not only what Eric McCormack can offer, but also sweet music to your ears. He, along with some other friends will bring love songs to you and your love at [Feinstein’s at Vitello’s], an intimate venue located above the Studio City Italian restaurant (what did we tell you about Valentine’s and Italians?). FYI – proof of vaccine is required for entry.
14. Bid good riddance to VDay at the Breakup Bar
Feeling bitter and ready for an Anti-Valentine’s Day party? Said event will be hosted at [Severance Wine Bar] that recently relocated inside the Palihouse Hotel in West Hollywood. If you want to thrash early, the [Break Up Bar] is celebrating the end of love from now until Valentine’s Day. Check out their mini art exhibit including relics of Valentine’s Day past and a movie screen showing classic break-up movies. Tickets are $22 a piece and includes a complimentary welcome drink. They have reservations for both their indoor and outdoor lounge, and their menu includes small bites, desserts and tons of unique cocktails.
How Property Taxes Are Determined
As we all may know, or to those who don’t, the first installment of property taxes is due November 1st and are delinquent after 5 pm on December 10th. After that, they will be delinquent and a 10% penalty will be added to the tax dues. If December 10th falls on a weekend or holiday, taxes are not delinquent until 5 pm the next business day. We, at Landon Pacific Realty, decided to help inform our amazing clients with how property taxes are determined through this blog!
Here are the fundamentals that you should know:
Property taxes are governed by California State law and collected by the county. The County Assessor must first assess the value of your property to determine the amount of property tax. Generally, the assessed value is the cash or market value at the time of purchase. This value increases not more than 2 % per year until the property is sold or new construction is completed. The auditor-controller applies the appropriate tax rates, which include the general tax levy, locally voted special taxes, and city or district direct assessments. The Tax Collector prepares property tax bills based on the Auditor-Controller calculations, distributes the bills, and collects the taxes.
Property tax in LA County is comprised of multiple factors. First, the general property tax levy is applied across the state of California. Next, voter-approved debt may apply, depending on where the property is located. If the property is in a school district or special district, an additional property tax will be applied. In compliance with Proposition 13, the general tax levy of 1 %, or $ 1 per $ 100, is applied as property tax by the state. Cities and local municipalities can levy additional tax on property. For example, the city of Los Angeles in LA County usually applies a property tax rate of .021297 to .029754 on top of the 1 % general levy. School districts taxes comprise the majority of a property tax, second only to the general tax levy. These rates can range depending on the school district and the given year. You can look up your real estate parcel on the LA County tax website to see what the actual property tax rate will be for the current year.
DID YOU RECENTLY SELL YOUR PROPERTY?
Although escrow prorates taxes and gives appropriate credit between buyer and seller, the actual taxes may not have been paid and you are responsible for any unpaid taxes at the close of escrow.
Read your escrow papers and/or title report to determine if any portion of the annual taxes was paid by the previous owner before the close of escrow. If any taxes remain unpaid call the Tax Collector and request a bill.
When you call, give the Assessor’s Identification Number from the previous tax bill; the property address; or the legal description.
State law stipulates that failure to receive bills does not permit the Tax Collector to excuse penalties on late payments.
Do’s and Don’ts of Property Taxes
- Pay online at propertytax.lacounty.gov. eChecks are FREE and you can pay up until 11:59 P.M. Pacific Time on the delinquency date. See “Payment Options” on the enclosed insert.
- Utilize self-service options at propertytax.lacounty.gov: – Locate the amount due. – Review your payment history. – Learn to avoid penalties by understanding postmarks.
- Enroll in our Property Tax Management System. Manage payment for properties you own. Visit propertytax.lacounty.gov for more information.
- Call your lender – not the Tax Collector – with questions on impound/escrow accounts. Lenders may debit accounts up to several months prior to submitting the payment to the Tax Collector.
- Understand that the Tax Collector has limited authority under the law to cancel penalties. Review our Penalty Cancellation Policy on propertytax.lacounty.gov under “Self-Service Options.”
- Wait until the last few days prior to December 10 or April 10 to pay your bill. If you pay close to the delinquency date and something goes wrong, you will not have the opportunity to correct it.
- Pay your bill using online bill payment services which your bank or financial institution offers. See “Online Banking or Bill Payment Services” on the enclosed insert.
- Mail your payment without understanding the importance of postmarks. Review “Avoid Penalties by Understanding Postmarks” on propertytax.lacounty.gov under “Resources.”
- Ignore Supplemental Secured Property Tax Bills. Most lenders DO NOT pay them. Review our Supplemental Secured Property Tac information on ttc.lacounty.gov under “Property Tax FAQs.”
- Think the Tax Collector can cancel a penalty due to a good payment history. The Tax Collector cannot. Review our Penalty Cancellation Policy on propertytax.lacounty.gov under “Self-Service Options.”